New Seat Details - Daventry and Lutterworth

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Daventry and Lutterworth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	35,630	62.9%
LAB	14,606	25.8%
LIB	3,816	6.7%
UKIP	1,712	3.0%
Green	879	1.6%
CON Majority	21,024	37.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Daventry and Lutterworth: Map

List of old seats forming part of Daventry and Lutterworth

Old seat: Daventry

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Daventry, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Daventry				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Daventry	Abbey North	4,731	Daventry and Lutterworth	2,194	1,413	304	147	48	0	0	0	4,106
Daventry	Abbey South	4,624	Daventry and Lutterworth	2,111	1,159	275	144	43	0	0	0	3,732
Daventry	Barby and Kilsby	3,559	Daventry and Lutterworth	2,088	596	483	53	34	0	0	0	3,254
Daventry	Braunston and Welton	1,936	Daventry and Lutterworth	755	542	71	21	16	0	0	0	1,405
Daventry	Brixworth	5,262	Daventry and Lutterworth	2,815	821	212	59	130	0	0	0	4,037
Daventry	Drayton	4,120	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,756	1,357	306	145	44	0	0	0	3,608
Daventry	Hill	3,942	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,859	1,142	252	123	40	0	0	0	3,416
Daventry	Long Buckby	5,046	Daventry and Lutterworth	2,473	996	292	129	52	0	0	0	3,942
Daventry	Moulton	3,722	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,680	521	156	38	88	0	0	0	2,483
Daventry	Ravensthorpe	1,905	Daventry and Lutterworth	961	245	109	47	17	0	0	0	1,379
Daventry	Spratton	3,027	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,811	416	159	84	25	0	0	0	2,495
Daventry	Walgrave	1,594	Daventry and Lutterworth	880	204	67	17	45	0	0	0	1,213
Daventry	Weedon	4,947	Northamptonshire South	2,456	709	360	118	42	0	0	0	3,685
Daventry	Welford	3,253	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,713	461	147	73	27	0	0	0	2,421
Daventry	Woodford	5,201	Northamptonshire South	2,604	895	186	63	123	0	0	0	3,871
Daventry	Yelvertoft	1,523	Daventry and Lutterworth	830	173	62	37	11	0	0	0	1,113
South Northamptonshire	Harpole and Grange	3,825	Northampton South	2,053	406	132	41	86	0	0	0	2,718
South Northamptonshire	Heyfords and Bugbrooke	3,649	Northamptonshire South	1,838	492	157	43	33	0	0	0	2,563
Wellingborough	Earls Barton	4,119	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,818	998	235	100	43	0	0	0	3,194
Wellingborough	Harrowden and Sywell	1,499	Daventry and Lutterworth	769	181	52	16	11	0	0	0	1,029
	Total	71,484		35,464	13,727	4,017	1,498	958	0	0	0	55,664

The full details of these calculations are given on the Daventry seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Harborough				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Harborough	Bosworth	1,847	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,086	257	73	21	15	0	0	0	1,452
Harborough	Fleckney	3,621	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,874	658	185	53	35	0	0	0	2,805
Harborough	Glen	3,437	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,817	480	131	35	26	0	0	0	2,489
Harborough	Kibworth	5,501	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	2,609	917	227	62	46	0	0	0	3,861
Harborough	Lubenham	1,596	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,020	397	181	80	22	0	0	0	1,700
Harborough	Market Harborough-Great Bowden and Arden	5,047	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,956	1,229	596	234	166	0	0	0	4,181
Harborough	Market Harborough-Little Bowden	4,114	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,658	783	317	54	98	0	0	0	2,910
Harborough	Market Harborough-Logan	3,120	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,255	655	312	45	88	0	0	0	2,355
Harborough	Market Harborough-Welland	5,064	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,677	1,202	556	80	147	0	0	0	3,662
Oadby and Wigston	Oadby Brocks Hill	3,047	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,084	735	310	118	27	0	0	0	2,274
Oadby and Wigston	Oadby Grange	4,267	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	2,026	1,327	375	49	38	0	0	0	3,815
Oadby and Wigston	Oadby St Peter's	3,186	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,075	849	346	45	94	0	0	0	2,409
Oadby and Wigston	Oadby Uplands	3,247	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,109	1,011	334	36	28	0	0	0	2,518
Oadby and Wigston	Oadby Woodlands	3,425	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,413	842	334	36	25	0	0	0	2,650
Oadby and Wigston	South Wigston	5,644	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,878	1,561	686	99	61	0	0	0	4,285
Oadby and Wigston	Wigston All Saints	4,584	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,569	1,142	550	76	48	0	0	0	3,385
Oadby and Wigston	Wigston Fields	4,817	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,618	1,358	612	82	52	0	0	0	3,722
Oadby and Wigston	Wigston Meadowcourt	4,475	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,604	1,090	552	76	48	0	0	0	3,370
Oadby and Wigston	Wigston St Wolstan's	4,928	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	1,805	1,211	608	80	48	0	0	0	3,752
	Total	74,967		30,133	17,704	7,285	1,361	1,112	0	0	0	57,595

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harborough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Leicestershire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicestershire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicestershire South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Blaby	Blaby South	3,672	Leicestershire South	1,513	721	289	84	59	0	0	0	2,666
Blaby	Cosby with South Whetstone	3,720	Leicestershire South	1,690	792	73	71	52	0	0	0	2,678
Blaby	Countesthorpe	5,933	Leicestershire South	2,486	740	343	103	73	0	0	0	3,745
Blaby	Croft Hill	1,733	Leicestershire South	846	286	27	32	23	0	0	0	1,214
Blaby	Enderby and St John's	3,574	Leicestershire South	1,450	832	88	219	58	0	0	0	2,647
Blaby	Millfield	1,915	Leicester West	648	676	48	42	29	0	0	0	1,443
Blaby	Narborough and Littlethorpe	3,945	Leicestershire South	2,011	731	110	79	64	0	0	0	2,995
Blaby	Normanton	2,030	Leicestershire South	926	391	38	38	27	0	0	0	1,420
Blaby	North Whetstone	3,817	Leicestershire South	1,846	894	102	83	61	0	0	0	2,986
Blaby	Pastures	3,755	Leicestershire South	1,840	620	91	73	52	0	0	0	2,676
Blaby	Ravenhurst and Fosse	5,142	Leicester West	1,749	2,000	133	121	79	0	0	0	4,082
Blaby	Saxondale	5,494	Leicestershire South	2,257	1,077	470	402	96	0	0	0	4,302
Blaby	Stanton and Flamville	6,021	Leicestershire South	3,117	819	98	114	72	0	0	0	4,220
Blaby	Winstanley	4,893	Leicester West	1,850	1,840	122	106	75	0	0	0	3,993
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Astley	1,546	Leicestershire South	950	260	37	36	23	0	0	0	1,306
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Broughton	2,051	Leicestershire South	1,155	381	38	43	27	0	0	0	1,644
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Primethorpe	1,299	Leicestershire South	639	262	30	27	19	0	0	0	977
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Sutton	1,448	Leicestershire South	764	289	30	32	21	0	0	0	1,136
Harborough	Dunton	1,688	Leicestershire South	937	212	20	30	20	0	0	0	1,219
Harborough	Lutterworth Brookfield	1,811	Daventry and Lutterworth	881	328	37	34	23	0	0	0	1,303
Harborough	Lutterworth Orchard	1,622	Daventry and Lutterworth	767	350	34	101	24	0	0	0	1,276
Harborough	Lutterworth Springs	1,642	Daventry and Lutterworth	737	393	38	98	25	0	0	0	1,291
Harborough	Lutterworth Swift	1,792	Daventry and Lutterworth	852	459	32	38	24	0	0	0	1,405
Harborough	Misterton	1,955	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,054	307	30	35	25	0	0	0	1,451
Harborough	Peatling	1,826	Leicestershire South	933	259	23	96	22	0	0	0	1,333
Harborough	Ullesthorpe	1,602	Leicestershire South	901	245	23	96	21	0	0	0	1,286
	Total	75,926		34,799	16,164	2,404	2,233	1,094	0	0	0	56,694

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicestershire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wellingborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wellingborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wellingborough				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Northamptonshire	Higham Ferrers Chichele	2,940	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,369	468	68	36	26	0	0	0	1,967
East Northamptonshire	Higham Ferrers Lancaster	3,463	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,775	501	65	42	26	0	0	0	2,409
East Northamptonshire	Rushden Bates	3,581	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,560	681	81	95	26	0	0	0	2,443
East Northamptonshire	Rushden Hayden	5,306	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,883	1,369	144	143	50	0	0	0	3,589
East Northamptonshire	Rushden Pemberton	4,834	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,913	1,214	129	137	45	0	0	0	3,438
East Northamptonshire	Rushden Sartoris	3,100	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,317	546	80	79	25	0	0	0	2,047
East Northamptonshire	Rushden Spencer	4,739	Wellingborough and Rushden	2,077	827	116	124	41	0	0	0	3,185
Wellingborough	Bozeat	1,646	Wellingborough and Rushden	710	272	27	17	12	0	0	0	1,038
Wellingborough	Brickhill	2,977	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,095	693	78	83	72	0	0	0	2,021
Wellingborough	Croyland	4,423	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,731	1,417	82	64	116	0	0	0	3,410
Wellingborough	Finedon	3,210	Kettering	1,340	636	74	89	28	0	0	0	2,167
Wellingborough	Great Doddington and Wilby	1,503	Wellingborough and Rushden	613	244	38	40	12	0	0	0	947
Wellingborough	Harrowden and Sywell	1,832	Daventry and Lutterworth	846	232	24	19	12	0	0	0	1,133
Wellingborough	Hatton	2,954	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,116	661	75	79	26	0	0	0	1,957
Wellingborough	Irchester	4,371	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,507	1,115	112	112	36	0	0	0	2,882
Wellingborough	Isebrook	1,111	Wellingborough and Rushden	432	373	32	40	39	0	0	0	916
Wellingborough	Queensway	4,257	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,446	1,798	122	151	136	0	0	0	3,653
Wellingborough	Redwell	4,898	Wellingborough and Rushden	2,244	809	134	131	40	0	0	0	3,358
Wellingborough	Rixon	4,397	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,889	1,459	105	141	39	0	0	0	3,633
Wellingborough	Swanspool	2,858	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,053	939	63	44	27	0	0	0	2,126
Wellingborough	Victoria	3,458	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,189	1,420	80	103	96	0	0	0	2,888
Wellingborough	Wollaston	3,053	Wellingborough and Rushden	1,473	444	53	36	25	0	0	0	2,031
	Total	74,911		30,578	18,118	1,782	1,805	955	0	0	0	53,238

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wellingborough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Daventry and Lutterworth

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Daventry and Lutterworth
Daventry	Abbey North	5,557	Daventry	2,194	1,413	304	147	48	0	0	0	4,106
Daventry	Abbey South	5,051	Daventry	2,111	1,159	275	144	43	0	0	0	3,732
Daventry	Barby and Kilsby	4,405	Daventry	2,088	596	483	53	34	0	0	0	3,254
Daventry	Braunston and Welton	1,902	Daventry	755	542	71	21	16	0	0	0	1,405
Daventry	Brixworth	5,464	Daventry	2,815	821	212	59	130	0	0	0	4,037
Daventry	Drayton	4,881	Daventry	1,756	1,357	306	145	44	0	0	0	3,608
Daventry	Hill	4,622	Daventry	1,859	1,142	252	123	40	0	0	0	3,416
Daventry	Long Buckby	5,335	Daventry	2,473	996	292	129	52	0	0	0	3,942
Daventry	Moulton	3,360	Daventry	1,680	521	156	38	88	0	0	0	2,483
Daventry	Ravensthorpe	1,865	Daventry	961	245	109	47	17	0	0	0	1,379
Daventry	Spratton	3,378	Daventry	1,811	416	159	84	25	0	0	0	2,495
Daventry	Walgrave	1,642	Daventry	880	204	67	17	45	0	0	0	1,213
Daventry	Welford	3,278	Daventry	1,713	461	147	73	27	0	0	0	2,421
Daventry	Yelvertoft	1,507	Daventry	830	173	62	37	11	0	0	0	1,113
Harborough	Bosworth	1,982	Harborough	1,086	257	73	21	15	0	0	0	1,452
Harborough	Fleckney	3,829	Harborough	1,874	658	185	53	35	0	0	0	2,805
Harborough	Lubenham	2,321	Harborough	1,020	397	181	80	22	0	0	0	1,700
Harborough	Lutterworth Brookfield	1,813	Leicestershire South	881	328	37	34	23	0	0	0	1,303
Harborough	Lutterworth Orchard	1,774	Leicestershire South	767	350	34	101	24	0	0	0	1,276
Harborough	Lutterworth Springs	1,797	Leicestershire South	737	393	38	98	25	0	0	0	1,291
Harborough	Lutterworth Swift	1,955	Leicestershire South	852	459	32	38	24	0	0	0	1,405
Harborough	Misterton	2,019	Leicestershire South	1,054	307	30	35	25	0	0	0	1,451
Wellingborough	Earls Barton	4,322	Daventry	1,818	998	235	100	43	0	0	0	3,194
Wellingborough	Harrowden and Sywell	1,392	Daventry	769	181	52	16	11	0	0	0	1,029
Wellingborough	Harrowden and Sywell	1,688	Wellingborough	846	232	24	19	12	0	0	0	1,133
	Total	77,139		35,630	14,606	3,816	1,712	879	0	0	0	56,643

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Daventry and Lutterworth. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Chris Heaton-Harris (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,139
Turnout:	73.4%

Daventry and Lutterworth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Daventry and Lutterworth: Overview

Introduction